Makrognosis

United States NY Fed SCE: mean probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months (%)

MonthlyNot seasonally adjustedCode US.SCE_JOBSEP.M.NSA

Latest13.9%October 2026
Previous13.5%September 2026
Year ago14.0%October 2025

United States NY Fed SCE: mean probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months (%) was 13.9% in October 2026, up 0.4 percentage points from September 2026 and down 0.09 percentage points from a year earlier.

Over the past ten years it has ranged from 10.8% (Feb 2022) to 20.9% (Apr 2020), averaging 13.8%.

United States NY Fed SCE: mean probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months (%) (%), Jun 2013 – Oct 202610.0%12.5%15.0%17.5%20.0%2014201620182020202220242026Robomacro
United States NY Fed SCE: mean probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months (%) (%), Jun 2013 – Oct 2026. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Survey of Consumer Expectations).

Showing the full history (downsampled for display). Open the interactive chart to zoom and switch transforms.

Recent data

PeriodValue
October 202613.9%
September 202613.5%
August 202613.8%
July 202614.2%
June 202614.1%
May 202615.1%
April 202614.6%
March 202614.4%
February 202613.8%
January 202614.8%
December 202515.2%
November 202513.8%
October 202514.0%
September 202514.9%
August 202514.5%
July 202514.4%
June 202514.0%
May 202514.8%
April 202515.3%
March 202515.7%
February 202514.1%
January 202514.2%
December 202411.9%
November 202413.5%

Last 24 observations. The full history (161 observations) is available through the API.

Get United States NY Fed SCE: mean probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months (%) in your code or spreadsheet

One guessable code, agency-direct, updated on release. Free tier available.

curl -H "X-API-Key: $MAKROGNOSIS_KEY" \
  "https://makrognosis.robomacro.com/v1/series/US.SCE_JOBSEP.M.NSA"

# Python
import requests
r = requests.get("https://makrognosis.robomacro.com/v1/series/US.SCE_JOBSEP.M.NSA",
                 headers={"X-API-Key": KEY})
obs = r.json()["observations"]
Get a free API key → · API docs

About this series

Latest observationOctober 2026
First observationJune 2013
Observations161
FrequencyMonthly
Units%
AdjustmentNot seasonally adjusted
10-year high20.9% (Apr 2020)
10-year low10.8% (Feb 2022)
10-year average13.8%
Source agencyFederal Reserve Bank of New York (Survey of Consumer Expectations)
Makrognosis codeUS.SCE_JOBSEP.M.NSA

Other United States indicators

United States GDP (Gross Domestic Product)United States Nominal GDP (SAAR)United States CPI-U, All Items (NSA)United States Inflation Rate (CPI)United States Core CPI (ex food & energy) (NSA)United States Core Inflation RateUnited States Unemployment RateUnited States Unemployment Rate (NSA)United States Credit Rating & Sovereign Risk ScoreUnited States Industrial ProductionUnited States Retail SalesUnited States Producer Price Inflation (PPI)United States Current account balance, SAUnited States Current account balance, annualUnited States Trade Balance: Goods & ServicesUnited States Exports of Goods & Services (BOP basis)

FAQ

What is the current nY Fed SCE: mean probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months (%) in United States?
The latest reading is 13.9% for October 2026, published by Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Survey of Consumer Expectations).
Where does this data come from?
It is collected directly from Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Survey of Consumer Expectations) and is available through the Makrognosis API under the code US.SCE_JOBSEP.M.NSA.

Last updated 2026-11-10. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Survey of Consumer Expectations). Original title: “NY Fed SCE: mean probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months (%)”.